7 February 2009

Mikhail Kasyanov expects mass protests in Russia

Mikhail Kasyanov expects mass protests in Russia this summer amid the current financial crisis. The leader of the People's Democratic Union said the mass protests will begin "when people in Russia realize that they are in a deep economic hole."

"In less than half a year, when the current leadership has spent all the money, there will be nothing left in the arsenal to engage with the public except batons and the use of force," Kasyanov told a roundtable on relations between the EU and Russia in Tallinn.

He said the country's economy could be saved by expanding political rights and freedoms in Russian society. He also noted that the country's foreign policy has become tougher.

"The freedom space has become more squeezed and the gap in values between Russia and the West has deepened," he said.

Kasyanov has accused the Russian authorities of "pressure and intimidation" after he was banned from running in the March 2008 presidential elections over irregularities in his application. The election commission ruled his supporters had collected forged signatures to support his bid.

Mikhail Kasyanov's presentation at the conference organized by the European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party (ELDR) in Tallinn.

At the end of 2007 many people in Russia and abroad were predicting that Putin will choose to stay as a president for a third term by changing the Constitution. So when it was finally decided by him that there would be another person serving as president – a young and reportedly liberal lawyer – a lot of people certainly felt a kind of relaxation. Moreover, they believed that Russia with the new president was about to enter the epoch of liberalization and the reconciliation with the West. Encouraged by that fact, they even failed to notice that elections were in fact cancelled and the whole environment in Russia continued to steadily deteriorate. Just the opposite, as a result, the already visible .values gap. between Russia and the civilized world has not diminished at all and continued to deepen.

After Medvedev.s appointment the space of freedom was squeezed even more. It became virtually impossible for opposition to register for elections, even at the municipal level; the new restrictions were imposed on activities of the political parties and NGOs, street manifestations almost prohibited, pressure on independent journalists and human rights activists markedly grew, private businesses felt increased tense as well, staunch anti-Western propaganda has been only intensified. As you know, at last even the 1993 Constitution for the first time has been changed to extend the presidential term, in other words, to help the ruling group to keep power in their hands.

This evident domestic policy trend could not help but transmit to the international arena. Therefore Russia-EU relations, admittedly the most important international link on the Eurasian continent, suffered al least two major crises initiated by Russia in less than half a year – the Georgian war last August and pan-European gas cutoff in January. One can conclude that this is too much even for these relations being far from normal for quite a long period of time.

I would like to contemplate basically on two subjects: why could it happen so and what needs to be done in order to avoid similar events in the future.

Let me start with the Georgian war. The Russian leadership relentlessly provoked the conflict in Georgia for years in every way, and in the beginning of August the Georgian leadership at last gave in and used armed force. Russian authorities started a large-scale war against the independent sovereign state of Georgia. Not only disproportionate use of force, but in fact a full-scale war. During this war not only the enclaves were occupied but also a significant part of core Georgian territory.

At first, European reaction to the Georgian war was quite quick and tough. EU summit has adopted a resolution supporting territorial integrity of Georgia and condemning Russia.s decision to recognize independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The decision was taken to freeze top political contacts until Russia fulfills the agreed peace plan.

However, in two months this principled position was basically diluted and European Union decided to return to .business as usual.. It happened though Russia continued to occupy the territories of independent state of Georgia. This turn by EU was met in Moscow with great satisfaction and was interpreted that Europe can accept, can swallow whatever it is offered. It became the best proof that Mr. Putin has been always right – international politics is just like gas market where everything is tradable at appropriate price. And you can easily witness that since that period of time the so-called .assertiveness. of the Russian foreign policy and brutality in domestic policy has grown even more.

For me and many others it was absolutely clear that EU decision to forgive Russian leadership for Georgian war would prepare fertile ground for the new crisis. Unfortunately, very soon it turned to be true. Notwithstanding extremely cold winter, Putin decided to terminate gas supplies to Europe in the beginning of January. I believe that it was the direct result of EU.s November decision to .pacify Russian leadership. and to .continue the mutually profitable dialogue.. Russian leaders became fully convinced they could do everything they wanted to do.

And it turned out as a result of the European shuttle diplomacy that the real reason to cut the gas supplies to Europe by the Russian authorities was extremely bizarre; it was unclear terms of payments for gas, which the Ukrainian side used to technologically provide for the European transit. The volume of gas taken by Ukraine for this purpose was 86 million cubic meters, its value at the end of the crisis was fixed at 15 million dollars. Obviously, the reason for the termination of gas supplies to Europe was negligibly minor in comparison with the consequences of this decision.

The consequences were as follows: the Russian authorities have denied access to energy of millions European consumers during the extremely cold winter. This led to disabling of domestic heating for millions of people and numerous stops of industrial enterprises in European countries. The total losses amount to billions of euro.

Russia.s direct losses also reach billions; on top of that Gazprom faces multi-billion claims. And what is most important, inadequate and irresponsible actions of the Russian leadership to halt gas deliveries to European consumers via Ukraine have undermined the reputation of the country and caused great damage to the long-term national interests of the Russian Federation.

This is just a symbolic picture of current state of Russia-EU relations. Instead of clearly available win-win cooperative solutions we continuously face problems and experience mutual losses. And as time passes these losses get bigger and bigger.

The current state of Russia-EU relations is evidently confirmed by the absence of the framework Partnership and Cooperation agreement between the parties. What partnership, what cooperation people are talking about? The two sides simply are not able to normally speak to each other if the concepts they operate with are, in fact, opposite to each other. As treatment of the basic values is now that different, any serious discussions will inevitably face difficulties from the preamble of such an agreement.

What to do? What can we do with that?

Russian authorities commonly pay lip service to such concepts as democracy, human rights and freedoms, market economy and international security. But it is evident that their understanding of these concepts is far from the standard meanings. Russian authorities not only claim that the war is the same as humanitarian operation; that elections mean appointment of an appropriate person and that human rights and freedoms must be granted only to loyal people, but they also insist that others should follow suit.

Within short period of time Putin and his friends built up a new Russian model, .managed sovereign democracy. and .capitalism for friends. based on absence of political freedoms, high oil prices and cheap foreign loans. The global crisis destroyed this model. But until the attitude of Russian authorities towards main democratic values practically changes, Russia will be inevitably a part of a problem, not a part of its solution.

I observe now that unfortunately wishful thinking disease has widely spread among many Western politicians and businessmen: people started to talk that Russia will liberalize and behave much softer as economic crisis progresses. Never ever. Natural reaction of the ruling group to the crisis is just the opposite – instead of liberalization and power sharing arrangements they will keep on oppressing the society, searching for enemies, intensifying anti-Western propaganda and imposing of mobilization spirit on the nation. For example, Russian authorities violently suppressed the social protests against the government action at the Far East and already stopped planned reductions of anti-riot forces. At the same time they will intensify liberal rhetoric just for Western consumption.

Moreover, some in the West already claim that Russia.s misbehavior must be forgiven because the stakes are too high and coordinated international action is vital now to fight the global crisis. We witnessed it a week ago at Davos opening ceremony where the audience wildly and approvingly applauded to nice Putin.s words on global cooperation strikingly contradictory to his real deeds. Let me remind you: it was just ten days after the end of the gas crisis produced by the same person.

It is evidently an illusion that EU might concentrate purely on economic agenda ignoring the core incentives and natural instincts of your partner. And what we already saw – just a few days after G20 Washington resolution with a strong anti-protectionist clause co-signed by President Medvedev, Russian government introduced new tough protectionist measures, raising customs duties for foreign cars.

I would also like to stress that gas crisis made it natural to rethink the basics of the existing cozy energy relationships at the continent. The time of murky secretive transactions in the oil and gas sector has already passed; merely for the sake of energy security all the terms of the contracts should become public.

A popular formula that .Russia should not be isolated. is misplaced. Russia cannot be isolated more than it has already isolated itself – take the same issues with South Ossetia and Abkhazia recognition and gas cutoff. Russian leaders continue to firmly believe that while oil and gas are still needed, Europeans will tolerate everything. Now everyone already knows the real value of these promises.

I am therefore convinced that the appropriate environment for Russia-EU cooperation could be created only if and when the European Union returns to the based principled value-based, clear and transparent position – whether it refers to the European security architecture, Framework Cooperation Agreement, NATO enlargement, 14th Protocol to the Human Rights Convention or energy cooperation. Any deviation from these principles will only undermine the practical efficiency of the approach.

Given that EU resumed talks on the new Framework Agreement, let me consider these negotiations from the point of view of the interests of ordinary Russians, not the current Russian authorities. EU should demand that Russia implements its international obligations under Council of Europe Charter. It means that Russia must observe all the common democratic standards in good faith, not only verbally but also in practice – free and fair elections, right for association, freedoms of manifestations and assembly, independence of media, investigation of political murders. All these positions can be respectfully and logically advanced by the EU at the talks. The recent Parliamentary Assembly resolution on the Georgian conflict shows that concerted and principled position by the Europeans is possible despite all the differences which certainly exist.

It seems to me some of you noticed the initiative of the so-called new European security architecture launched by Russian President right after the war with Georgia. It is clear that from the security point of view this proposal does not produce anything new. But negotiations or even discussions of it could considerably effect basic European values.

Another proposal of the Russian leadership – to change OSCE founding documents on election monitoring has only one purpose – to establish the new Russian model of .managed democracy. internationally and therefore cancel existing obligations of the Russian Federation on political freedoms and free and fair elections. What to do with that? The answer is simple – not even to start discussion.

Let.s take another aspect of Russian authorities. interaction with EU – Council of Europe - permanent intrigues at the Parliamentary Assembly and blocking the ratification of the Protocol 14 without any reason. What to do? Continue to demand Russia to implements its duties.

In the sphere of energy EU.s policy of .engagement with the bear. lasted for few years. The result is evident – pan-European cutoff of gas supplies. What to do with that? Normal logic dictates fast diversification of supplies to minimize dependence on unpredictable and aggressive regime. But let us imagine that in two or three years this undemocratic regime disappears and liberal democratic forces come to power. Then the energy partnership in exploration, transport and distribution will definitely become driving force in building up the real secured and prosperous Europe. Please be prepared for such developments, too.

Dear colleagues,

Sometimes it looks like European politicians and businessmen, the European Union as a whole still cannot believe that there is something absolutely wrong with their political counterparts in Russia. Failure of Europe to recognize and admit that reality in today.s Russia is quite different to the nice words pronounced by the Russian leaders is risky. Failure of European Union to properly react to misbehavior of its major economic and political partner is dangerous for both Russia and Europe. Unless this situation is changed, the interests of effective cooperation between Russia and EU will inevitably suffer. It is clear now that it is possible to overcome these problems and achieve positive results only with the help of EU united foreign and security policy being actively formed and applied. The cost is too high to continue the previous policies which already proved more than once to be disastrous.

Printer-friendly version    Events for the same date    Event headlines